1. AchutaRao, K.M., et al., 2006: Variability of ocean heat uptake: Reconciling observations and models. J. Geophys. Res., 111, C050192. Ackerman, A.S., et al., 2000: Reduction of tropical cloudiness by soot. Science, 288, 1042?10473. Adams, J.B., M.E. Mann, and C.M. Ammann, 2003: Proxy evidence foran El Nino-like response to volcanic forcing. Nature, 426(6964), 274?2784. Alexander, L.V., et al., 2006: Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation. J. Geophys. Res., 111,D05109, doi:10.1029/2005JD0062905. Allan, R.J., and T.J. Ansell, 2006: A new globally-complete monthly historical gridded mean sea level pressure data set (HadSLP2): 1850-2004. J. Clim., 19, 5816?58426. Allen, M.R., 2003: Liability for climate change. Nature, 421, 891?8927. Allen, M.R., and S.F.B. Tett, 1999: Checking for model consistency in optimal fi ngerprinting. Clim. Dyn., 15, 419?4348. Allen, M.R., and W.J. Ingram, 2002: Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle. Nature, 419, 224?2329. Allen, M.R., and D.A. Stainforth, 2002: Towards objective probabilisticclimate forecasting. Nature, 419, 228?22810. Allen, M.R., and P.A. Stott, 2003: Estimating signal amplitudes in optimalfi ngerprinting, Part I: Theory. Clim. Dyn., 21, 477?49111. Allen, M.R., J.A. Kettleborough, and D.A. Stainforth, 2002: Model errorin weather and climate forecasting. In: ECMWF Predictability ofWeather and Climate Seminar [Palmer, T.N. (ed.)]. European Centre forMedium Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK, 
http://www.ecmwf
int/publications/library/do/references/list/20912. Allen, M.R., et al., 2000: Quantifying the uncertainty in forecasts ofanthropogenic climate change. Nature, 407, 617?62013. Ammann, C.M., G.A. Meehl, W.M. Washington, and C. Zender, 2003: Amonthly and latitudinally varying volcanic forcing dataset in simulationsof 20th century climate. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(12), 165714. Anderson, T.L., et al., 2003: Climate forcing by aerosols: A hazy picture
Science, 300, 1103?110415. Andronova, N.G., and M.E. Schlesinger, 2000: Causes of globaltemperature changes during the 19th and 20th centuries. Geophys. Res
Lett., 27(14), 2137?214016. Andronova, N.G., and M.E. Schlesinger, 2001: Objective estimation of theprobability density function for climate sensitivity. J. Geophys. Res.,106(D19), 22605?2261117. Andronova, N.G., M.E. Schlesinger, and M.E. Mann, 2004: Arereconstructed pre-instrumental hemispheric temperatures consistentwith instrumental hemispheric temperatures? Geophys. Res. Lett., 31,L12202, doi:10.1029/2004GL01965818. Andronova, N.G., et al., 1999: Radiative forcing by volcanic aerosols from1850 to 1994. J. Geophys. Res., 104, 16807?1682619. Andronova, N.G., et al., 2007: The concept of climate sensitivity:History and development. In: Human-Induced Climate Change: AnInterdisciplinary Assessment [Schlesinger, M., et al. (eds.)]. CambridgeUniversity Press, Cambridge, UK, in press20. Annan, J.D., and J.C. Hargreaves, 2006: Using multiple observationallybasedconstraints to estimate climate sensitivity. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33,L06704, doi:10.1029/2005GL02525921. Annan, J.D., et al., 2005: Effi ciently constraining climate sensitivity withpaleoclimate simulations. Scientifi c Online Letters on the Atmosphere,1, 181?18422. Arblaster, J.M., and G.A. Meehl, 2006: Contributions of external forcingto Southern Annular Mode trends. J. Clim., 19, 2896?290523. Bader, J., and M. Latif, 2003: The impact of decadal-scale Indian Oceansea surface temperature anomalies on Sahelian rainfall and the NorthAtlantic Oscillation. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(22), 216924. Banks, H.T., et al., 2000: Are observed decadal changes in intermediatewater masses a signature of anthropogenic climate change? GeophysRes. Lett., 27, 2961?296425. Barnett, T.P., D.W. Pierce, and R. Schnur, 2001: Detection of anthropogenicclimate change in the world?s oceans. Science, 292, 270?27426. Barnett, T.P., et al., 1999: Detection and attribution of recent climatechange. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 80, 2631?265927. Barnett, T.P., et al., 2005: Penetration of a warming signal in the world?soceans: human impacts. Science, 309, 284?28728. Bauer, E., M. Claussen, V. Brovkin, and A. Huenerbein, 2003: Assessingclimate forcings of the Earth system for the past millennium. Geophys
Res. Lett., 30(6), 127629. Beltrami, H., J.E. Smerdon, H.N. Pollack, and S. Huang, 2002: Continentalheat gain in the global climate system. Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 116730. Bengtsson, L., K.I. Hodges, and E. Roechner, 2006: Storm tracks andclimate change. J. Clim., 19, 3518?354331. Berger, A., 1978: Long-term variations of caloric solar radiation resultingfrom the earth?s orbital elements. Quat. Res., 9, 139?16732. Berger, A., 1988: Milankovitch theory and climate. Rev. Geophys., 26,624?65733. Berliner, L.M., R.A. Levine, and D.J. Shea, 2000: Bayesian climate changeassessment. J. Clim., 13, 3805?382034. Bertrand, C., M.F. Loutre, M. Crucifi x, and A. Berger, 2002: Climate of thelast millennium: a sensitivity study. Tellus, 54A(3), 221?24435. Betts, R.A., 2001: Biogeophysical impacts of land use on present-dayclimate: near surface temperature and radiative forcing. Atmos. Sci
Lett., 2, 39?5136. Bigelow, N.H., et al., 2003: Climate change and Arctic ecosystems: 1
Vegetation changes north of 55 degrees N between the last glacialmaximum, mid-Holocene, and present. J. Geophys. Res., 108(D19),8170, doi:10.1029/2002JD00255837. Bindoff, N.L., and T.J. McDougall, 2000: Decadal changes along an IndianOcean section at 32S and their interpretation. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 30(6),1207?122238. Bjerknes, J., 1969: Atmospheric teleconnections from the equatorialPacifi c. Mon. Weather Rev., 97, 163?17239. Boer, G.J., and B. Yu, 2003: Climate sensitivity and climate state. ClimDyn., 21, 167?17640. Boucher, O., and J. Haywood, 2001: On summing the components ofradiative forcing of climate change. Clim. Dyn., 18, 297?30241. Boyer, T.P., et al., 2005: Linear trends in salinity for the World Ocean,1955-1998. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L0160442. Braconnot, P., S. Joussaume, O. Marti, and N. de Noblet, 1999: Synergisticfeedbacks from ocean and vegetation on the African monsoon responseto mid-Holocene insolation. Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 2481?248443. Braconnot, P., O. Marti, S. Joussaume, and Y. Leclainche, 2000: Oceanfeedback in response to 6 kyr BP insolation. J. Clim., 13(9), 1537?155344. Braconnot, P., et al., 2004: Evaluation of PMIP coupled ocean-atmospheresimulations of the Mid-Holocene. In: Past Climate Variability throughEurope and Africa [Battarbee, R.W., F. Gasse, and C.E. Stickley (eds.)] Springer, London, UK, pp. 515-53345. Braganza, K., et al., 2003: Simple indices of global climate variability andchange: Part I - Variability and correlation structure. Clim. Dyn., 20,491?50246. Braganza, K., et al., 2004: Simple indices of global climate variability andchange: Part II - Attribution of climate change during the 20th century Clim. Dyn., 22, 823?83847. Briffa, K.R., et al., 2001: Low-frequency temperature variations from anorthern tree ring density network. J. Geophys. Res., 106(D3), 2929?294148. Broccoli, A.J., et al., 2003: Twentieth-century temperature andprecipitation trends in ensemble climate simulations including naturaland anthropogenic forcing. J. Geophys. Res., 108(D24), 479849. Brohan, P., et al., 2006: Uncertainty estimates in regional and globalobserved temperature changes: a new dataset from 1850. J. Geophys Res., 111, D12106, doi:10.1029/2005JD00654850. Bryden, H.L., E. McDonagh, and B.A. King, 2003: Changes in ocean watermass properties: oscillations of trends? Science, 300, 2086?2088Bryden, H.L., H.R. Longworth, and S.A.51. Cunningham, 2005: Slowing ofthe Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 25° N. Nature, 438,655?65752. Burke, E.J., S.J. Brown, and N. Christidis, 2006: Modelling the recentevolution of global drought and projections for the 21st century with theHadley Centre climate model. J. Hydrometeorol., 7, 1113?112553. Caesar, J., L. Alexander, and R. Vose, 2006: Large-scale changes inobserved daily maximum and minimum temperatures, 1946-2000. J54. Geophys. Res., 111, D05101, doi:10.1029/2005JD00628055. Cai, W., P.H. Whetton, and D.J. Karoly, 2003: The response of the AntarcticOscillation to increasing and stabilized atmospheric CO2. J. Clim., 16,1525?153856. Cane, M., et al., 2006: Progress in paleoclimate modeling. J. Clim., 19,5031?505757. Carril, A.F., C.G. Menéndez, and A. Navarra, 2005: Climate responseassociated with the Southern Annular Mode in the surroundings ofAntarctic Peninsula: A multimodel ensemble analysis. Geophys. Res Lett., 32, L16713, doi:10.1029/2005GL02358158. Chan, J.C.L., 2006: Comment on ?Changes in tropical cyclone number,duration, and intensity in a warming environment?. Science, 311, 171359. Chan, J.C.L., and K.S. Liu, 2004: Global warming and western NorthPacifi c typhoon activity from an observational perspective. J. Clim., 17,4590?460260. Chase, T.N., J.A. Knaff, R.A. Pielke, and E. Kalnay, 2003: Changes inglobal monsoon circulations since 1950. Natural Hazards, 29, 229?25461. Chen, J., B.E. Carlson, and A.D. Del Genio, 2002: Evidence forstrengthening of the tropical general circulation in the 1990s. Science,295, 838?84162. Christidis, N., et al., 2005: Detection of changes in temperature extremesduring the second half of the 20th century. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32,L20716, doi:10.1029/2005GL02388563. Christy, J.R., R.W. Spencer, and W.D. Braswell, 2000: MSU tropospherictemperatures: Dataset construction and radiosonde comparison. J Atmos. Ocean. Technol., 17, 1153?117064. Chuang, C.C., et al., 2002: Cloud susceptibility and the fi rst aerosolindirect forcing: Sensitivity to black carbon and aerosol concentrations
J. Geophys. Res., 107(D21), 4564, doi:10.1029/2000JD00021565. Church, J.A., N.J. White, and J.M. Arblaster, 2005: Volcanic eruptions:their impact on sea level and oceanic heat content. Nature, 438, 74?7766. Clement, A.C., R. Seager, and M.A. Cane, 2000: Suppression of ElNino during the mid-Holocene by changes in the Earth?s orbit
Paleoceanography, 15(6), 731?73767. Clement, A.C., A. Hall, and A.J. Broccoli, 2004: The importance ofprecessional signals in the tropical climate. Clim. Dyn., 22, 327?341
CLIMAP (Climate: Long-range Investigation, Mapping and Prediction),1981: Seasonal Reconstructions of the Earth?s Surface at the LastGlacial Maximum. Map Series Technical Report MC-36, GeologicalSociety of America, Boulder, CO68. Cobb, K.M., C.D. Charles, H. Cheng, and R.L. Edwards, 2003: ElNino/Southern Oscillation and tropical Pacifi c climate during the lastmillennium. Nature, 424(6946), 271?27669. Collins, M., 2000a: The El-Nino Southern Oscillation in the second HadleyCentre coupled model and its response to greenhouse warming. J. Clim.,13, 1299?131270. Collins, M., 2000b: Understanding uncertainties in the response of ENSOto greenhouse warming. Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 3509?351371. Cook, E.R., et al., 2004: Long-term aridity changes in the western UnitedStates. Science, 306(5698), 1015?101872. Coughlin, K., and K.K. Tung, 2004: Eleven-year solar cycle signalthroughout the lower atmosphere. J. Geophys. Res., 109, D21105,doi:10.1029/2004JD00487373. Crooks, S., 2004: Solar Infl uence On Climate. PhD Thesis, University ofOxford74. Crooks, S.A., and L.J. Gray, 2005: Characterization of the 11-year solarsignal using a multiple regression analysis of the ERA-40 dataset. J Clim., 18(7), 996?101575. Crowley, T.J., 2000: Causes of climate change over the past 1000 years Science, 289(5477), 270?27776. Crowley, T.J., et al., 2003: Modeling ocean heat content changes during thelast millennium. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(18), 193277. Cubasch, U., et al., 1997: Simulation of the infl uence of solar radiationvariations on the global climate with an ocean-atmosphere generalcirculation model. Clim. Dyn., 13(11), 757?76778. Cubasch, U., et al., 2001: Projections of future climate change. In: ClimateChange 2001: The Scientifi c Basis. Contribution of Working Group I tothe Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange [Houghton, J.T., et al. (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press,Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 99?18179. Curry, R., B. Dickson, and I. Yashayaev, 2003: A change in the freshwaterbalance of the Atlantic Ocean over the past four decades. Nature, 426,826?82980. Dai, A., K.E. Trenberth, and T.R. Karl, 1999: Effects of clouds, soil,moisture, precipitation and water vapour on diurnal temperature range J. Clim., 12, 2451?247381. Dai, A., et al., 2004: The recent Sahel drought is real. Int. J. Climatol., 24,1323?133182. D?Arrigo, R., et al., 2005: On the variability of ENSO over the pastsix centuries. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32(3), L03711, doi:10.1029/2004GL02205583. Delworth, T.L., and T.R. Knutson, 2000: Simulation of early 20th centuryglobal warming. Science, 287, 2246?225084. Delworth, T.L., and M.E. Mann, 2000: Observed and simulated multidecadalvariability in the Northern Hemisphere. Clim. Dyn., 16(9), 661?67685. Delworth, T.L., V. Ramaswamy, and G.L. Stenchikov, 2005: The impactof aerosols on simulated ocean temperature and heat content in the 20thcentury. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L24709, doi:10.1029/2005GL02445786. Delworth, T., et al., 2002: Review of simulations of climate variabilityand change with the GFDL R30 coupled climate model. Clim. Dyn.,19, 555?57487. Dickson, R.R., et al., 2002: Rapid freshening of the deep North AtlanticOcean over the past four decades. Nature, 416, 832?83788. Douglass, D.H., and B.D. Clader, 2002: Climate sensitivity of the Earth tosolar irradiance. Geophys. Res. Lett., 29(16), 178689. Douglass, D.H., and R.S. Knox, 2005: Climate forcing by volcanic eruptionof Mount Pinatubo. Geophys. Res. Let
